2010: el año de la (lenta) recuperación (II)
Segunda parte del post publicado el otro día. Esta vez para resaltar lo más interesante de los otros 12 entrevistados.
De entre todos, me quedo con los que incluyo a continuación. Especialmente con lo que comenta Biz Stone, cofundador de Twitter, sobre la importancia que tendrá en el 2010 la búsqueda social (las compañías a las que se refiere y no quiere nombrar son, casi con seguridad, Vark y Square, de Jack Dorsey) y lo que dice George F. Colony, CEO y fundador de Forrester Research (y mi antiguo jefe de jefes!) sobre la destrucción de las élites tradicionales y el rol de Google a largo plazo como compañía de software y no de medios.
Aquí va el resumen de lo que dijeron:
BIZ STONE, co-fundador de Twitter
“Crecerá una tendencia que ha venido gestándose en la última década: el intercambio abierto de información. Si estás informado, participas más. La tecnología está aquí para mejorar las relaciones humanas”.
“Dos start-ups tendrán potencial en 2010. ¡No diré los nombres porque podría alterar el futuro! Una vendrá disfrazada de un extraño juego. Cuando la gente descubra que es un sistema masivo y autoorganizable capaz de responder preguntas, comunicarnos y aprender, generará mucho ruido. Y la otra novedad logrará hacerse con un gran volumen de pequeñas pero importantes transacciones diarias.”
DANIEL EK, co-fundador de Spotify
“Se ha hablado del renacimiento del móvil desde hace tiempo, pero 2010 será el año en el que realmente veremos a los smartphones alcanzar todo su potencial“.
“El éxito no se puede conseguir de la noche a la mañana. Es algo que se está aprendiendo. Incluso el negocio digital más exitoso hasta el momento, iTunes, incumplió en un 30% su objetivo de ingresos el primer año”.
“Compañías que ayuden a la industria musical a atajar la amenaza de la piratería acapararán la atención. La gente está pasando de poseer música a acceder a ella”.
GEORGE F. COLONY, CEO y fundador de Forrester Research
“La recesión destruirá un número de élites tradicionales, como los gurús dominantes en el sector de medios. Los emprendedores deberán tener en cuenta esta nueva élite emergente en torno al uso astuto de la tecnología para revolucionar sectores”.
“Google cambiará el negocio del software, empujando la “Internet ejecutable” más allá del viejo modelo de escritorio que ha dominado los últimos 20 años. Google será una compañía de software en el largo plazo, no una compañía de medios“.
“El final de los ciclos económicos ofrece las mejores oportunidades para inversores a largo plazo”.
PAUL GRAHAM, fundador de YCombinator
“Más y más gente accederá a Internet desde equipos como el iPhone y su futuro tablet. Aunque, en lugar de “equipos como el iPhone”, debería decir “el iPhone”. Apple aplastará a sus competidores. Desearía que no fuera así, la competencia les mantendría a raya. Pero la industria de la telefonía ha sido demasiado tiempo un oligopolio. Apple es como un depredador en un ecosistema de islas”.
“El 2010 será “probablemente” mejor. Los inversores y emprendedores se retiraron a finales del 2008 y comienzos del 2009 por la recesión. Pero este otoño la crisis parece haber terminado“.
MARTÍN VARSAVSKY, fundador de FON
“En Fon, luego de unos años duros con el tema WiFI, ahora estamos en auge. El WiFi está apareciendo en todos los aparatos. Los teléfonos con WiFi eran raros y ahora casi todos los de alta gama lo tienen. Los operadores que veían al WiFi como una amenaza ahora lo ven como una salvación, ya que les baja la demanda en la red”.
“Twitter está teniendo un nivel absurdo de atención. Soy una de las personas más seguidas en Twitter en España, pero pese a eso considero absolutamente desproporcionado el nivel de cobertura que se le da a Twitter. Es una herramienta útil, un post sms, pero nada revolucionario”.
Interview with Daniel Ek, Spotify Co-founder
The other day I wrote about what music labels think about the Internet: it needs to be regulated. No surprise there, although it´s shocking that they admit it wide open.
Newly created services like Spotify are trying to bridge the two worlds. But it just seems unfair that labels let online start-ups do the “dirty job” of innovating and then charge them hard for it. If everything continues as it goes, Spotify will either start charging for the whole service or go bankrupt in the future.
I don´t think the second will happen, as they are creative enough to find new revenue channels without annoying the user. But that´s exactly what labels should be thinking about instead of legally persecuting everyone.
I recently asked Spotify co-founder Daniel Ek about some of these issues (in the photo, on the right, next to Martin Lorentzon, co-founder of Spotify). Interesting insights from Daniel but, the fact that he is extremely cautious and “politically correct” in his answers, demonstrates the pressure that labels still apply (sadly) in the whole industry. Online and offline.
Here´s an extract of his answers, sent to me by email:
Q: Could Spotify become a strong revenue channel for label companies?
A: I‘ve found that the Spotify concept is quite hard to explain to them, but when they see it, they get a better feeling because it is so quick to access the content. That has been an immense help to us when trying to figure out the business model behind this.
On the monetisation side, I think that it’s fair to say we come with experience here; we know how to monetise ad-supported models. We’ve also developed premium models before so we know how to differentiate a premium model from an ad-supported one.
Q. Still, the majority of people use the free service offered by Spotify. What percentage approximately? Do you believe the revenue from advertising will offset in the long term the revenue demanded by labels and artists?
A: We haven’t announced details on percentages at present. Both sets of users are equally important right now, but as the volume of users continues to increase (and the likelihood is that the free users will expand far quicker than paid for users) Spotify’s value to advertisers will increase exponentially.
In terms of satisfying the labels, music is a hugely powerful medium and we believe we have the business model in place to harness that power. Plus being online and unlike old radio advertising, which has to rely on listener surveys, we can tell brands what specific audience they are reaching.
Q: How many advertisers have you signed in and what´s your revenue target for 2009 and 2010?
A: Some examples of advertisers include Ford, Xbox, Vodafone, Philips, Nissan and Sony Pictures. We’re looking to have broken even by the end of the year.
Q: What´s the revenue sharing model you have with label companies and how many do you want to sign in by the end of 2009?
A: Spotify aggregates content from right holders, distributes it to consumers through our technical platform and monetises both through a free, ad funded service, and a subscription service. We already have the majority of major labels and a large number of indies. We aren’t going into specific detail as to our business model, other than to say that this is based partly on click through volumes.
Q: Do you believe people will prefer listening free streamed music online in real time (in their PCs or mobiles) rather than download it?
A: The access over ownership debate is an interesting one, and it really comes down to preference. Some people are happy to listen to music in whatever format, so long as they can enjoy the music. Others will continue to prefer listening to CDs and vinyl. It’s all about choice and making music available simply and instantly, wherever you are.
Q: Will you launch Spotify for mobiles in 2009?
A: It’s no secret that mobile is definitely something we want to develop in the future - it’s the most requested feature from our users. We’re excited about platforms such as the iPhone and other devices as they enable third-party developers such as ourselves to develop interesting functionality. It’s good for the mobile industry in general if it becomes more open and we see people use mobile services a lot more. However, we want to make sure that we can provide a simple service that is just as easy to use as the computer version so we won’t release anything until it’s done right.
Q: Will listening to music be 100% free for consumers in the near future?
A: That’s not a question I can answer yet – but the fact is that millions of people already get their music free through piracy. We’re looking to become an alternative to piracy, making music free to listen to while also providing a revenue stream for labels and artists.
Q: Do you believe the real revenue generator for labels and artists won´t be charging for music, but rather the entire channel ecosystem around music (concerts, merchandising, advertising…)?
A: It will be a mixture of these things. More established artists are already seeing the majority of their revenue driven through touring and merchandising. But there also needs to be an effort not to devalue the music itself in its entirety and make sure it remains an open revenue stream.
Q: In the long term, is not Spotify a huge competitor for labels? You can promote and distribute artists, so… what do you (and artists) need labels for?
A: Spotify has been made possible by working closely with the music labels and we need to work together to support the music industry.
Photo: by Rsms
